How to Determine Home Value

Widen the Range When Your Home Isn't Listed

Decide how much weight an online estimate gets. Start with whether your house is on the market.

Redfin publishes how far off its estimate runs. In its update of October 13, 2026, the median error was 1.89% for homes that are for sale and 7.42% for off-market homes. Redfin explains it this way: for a home on the market, the estimate lands within 1.89% of the sales price half of the time. For an off-market home, it lands within 7.42% of the eventual sales price half the time. Redfin says its estimate is more accurate for homes that are for sale because there's more data about them.

The gap is nearly four times. On a $400,000 house, 7.42% is $29,680. Half of off-market estimates miss by more. Redfin adds that its estimate isn't a formal appraisal or a substitute for the in-person expertise of an agent or appraiser. These figures cover Redfin's estimate only.

Our view: a price comes from what the market says it's worth, not from a formula.

So treat the estimate as a range, not a price. Widen the range when the house isn't listed. Then test it against sold homes.

Date Your Comparable Sales by When They Went Under Contract

Pick which sales count, and which date counts, before you compare a single number.

Start with closed sales in your own market area. For a loan a lender sells to Fannie Mae, its Selling Guide has the appraiser report at least three closed comparable sales, with exceptions for new or recently converted condo projects, subdivisions and PUDs. Contract offerings and current listings can be used as supporting data, if appropriate. The sales should have similar physical and legal characteristics to the house, and condition is on Fannie Mae's list. Fannie Mae says to use sales from the same market area when possible, and it defines that area as the region from which most demand comes and in which most of the competition is located. The guide's current text and its supplement for the newer UAD 3.6 appraisal format agree on each of these points.

Then date each sale by its contract. Because an appraisal is for one point in time, Fannie Mae wants the appraiser to check for changes in market conditions from the time the comparable went under contract to the effective date of the appraisal. Its example: a 12-month value trend can show a rise even though the market was stable or declining between a comparable's contract date and the appraisal. Redfin's September 2026 report shows the lag: most of the deals that closed that month had gone under contract in July or August. So look at what's under contract nearby, not only at what closed.

Place matters too. In that report, the national median home-sale price was up 1.3% from a year earlier, at $393,895. Among the 50 most populous metros, medians ran from up 14.6% in San Francisco to down 4.4% in Seattle. A median isn't your house.

Our view: if your house needs work, your comps should need work too. If a number has to move, it should move on as-is sold homes, shown to you up front, never on renovated ones.

Let Real Buyers Confirm the Range

Before you commit to a number, decide how real buyers will confirm it.

If you list, the market answers on its own schedule. Redfin's September 2026 report says pending home sales across the country, on its seasonally adjusted count, fell to their lowest level since spring 2014, apart from April 2020; they were down from a year earlier in all 50 of the most populous metros. In Fort Lauderdale, the typical home that went under contract that month did so in 86 days.

Our view: the live market votes. Views, saves, days on market, calls, offers and what buyers say in person show whether a price fits. No interest means the price is too high.

Or start from a written number. Cash Flow Deals makes two offers, and you choose:

1. Fast Cash Offer: Cash Flow Deals buys the house as-is and closes. No listing. One walk-through by our team.

2. Premium Cash Offer: More money. A pre-approved FHA or conventional buyer we already have buys directly from you. That buyer comes from the pre-approved FHA or conventional buyers we already have, ready to go. You sign with us at the agreed number and let us bring a buyer in our place. During the 15 business days of inspection the home may be listed. A licensed agent brings each buyer. Showings are scheduled ahead and take 10 to 15 minutes. The buyer signs a new contract directly with you. The buyer's lender funds it. Title transfers once. Cash Flow Deals is paid as a separate line item on the closing statement. If a Premium buyer's financing falls through, you can still take our Fast Cash Offer.

3. Inspection: 15 business days of inspection, on either offer.

4. Closing: 45 days or less; the seller helps pick the date.

Our view: a higher number comes from showing the house to buyers who finance with FHA and conventional loans.