What Is My Home Value? The Real Math Behind the Number

The Three Numbers That Decide How Wrong an Estimate Can Be

So what does a 7% miss actually cost you if you use it to make a decision? It depends on which of three accuracy bands your house falls into. Redfin reports a 2.09% median error rate for homes currently listed for sale. Zillow reports 2.4% for the same category. Both numbers roughly double, and then some, the moment a home isn't listed: 6.47% for Redfin, 7.49% for Zillow.

Two numbers, on and off market, aren't a coincidence. They're the whole story of what these tools actually have to work with.

Why an Unlisted Home Gets a Worse Number

An automated valuation model builds its estimate from tax records, MLS listings, recent sales, and neighborhood trends, updated weekly or monthly depending on the tool. When your home is listed, the model has fresh, direct signal: your own listing price, your own photos, buyer interest in real time.

When it isn't listed, none of that exists. The model is working from older sales and a guess at your home's current condition, which is exactly why the error rate roughly triples for an off-market home on both Redfin and Zillow.

If your home isn't for sale right now, you're looking at the wider number, not the tighter one, no matter which tool you check.

What $28,000 Actually Means for a Decision

A 7% error on a $400,000 home is a $28,000 gap. That's not a rounding issue. That's the difference between a number that supports a real decision and one that quietly costs you tens of thousands of dollars if you act on it directly, whether you're setting a listing price or evaluating an offer against it.

You don't have to accept that gap as the cost of a free tool. A second method, one that actually looks at your specific house instead of averaging nearby sales, closes it.

One Number, Not a Model's Average

You don't have to guess which side of that error range your home falls on. Here's how a direct property review works: 1. Cash Flow Deals reviews your address and your house's condition, usually within one business day of you reaching out. You compare the Fast Cash Offer, where we buy your house as-is and close, and the Premium Cash Offer, where a pre-approved FHA or conventional buyer we already have, ready to go, pays more and buys directly from you. You choose. 2. For either offer, the number is agreed before any work starts, and it changes only if you agree. The one exception: if something structural surfaces that was not visible or disclosed before we signed — foundation issues, hidden moisture, old wiring, cast-iron drain failure — we re-cost it and bring the number back to you. You decide. You can walk away. We disclose what we know at offer time so this almost never happens. We cover repair costs, and we figure out a way, so nothing comes out of your pocket. With Premium, only what the buyer's lender requires gets fixed, with costs settled from the sale proceeds out of our share. With Fast Cash, we buy as-is, with no repairs for you to make. 3. You help pick your closing date. If the Premium buyer's loan falls through, that is our problem, not yours, and you can still choose the Fast Cash Offer at its own number alongside the Premium Cash Offer.

You get two offers tied to your actual house, so you can compare what you would receive instead of relying on a model's average with a built-in $28,000 margin of error. Cash Flow Deals explains both offers so you can choose the one that fits.